To Understand Voters, Perception Matters
It's not just about statistics
The woke-captured MSM (mainstream media) has been full of stories asserting that crime is down, that criminal immigrants aren’t a problem of import, and relying on poor or cherry-picked statistics to support such claims. Much of this is to argue against a Trump campaign message that is resonating with what many voters feel – that crime is a problem that needs to be addressed.
When discussing crime and public safety, policymakers, media outlets, and community members often focus on crime statistics as a primary tool for understanding the state of criminal activity. However, focusing on crime data alone can paint an incomplete picture. Perception of crime, while often seen as more subjective and potentially exaggerated, should not be ignored because it plays a significant role in shaping public behavior, policy, and community trust.
Crime statistics can provide insights but they are often skewed, underreported, or limited by the mechanisms used to collect the data. Contrary to the legacy media’s perspective, perceptions matter and may give us a fuller picture in understanding how to target messaging, what policy changes are warranted, and how to redirect funding. It borders on hypocrisy that the party full of those who prioritize “lived experience” would seek to ignore the lived experiences of so many voters who feel burdened by civic unrest and criminal activity. Informed politicians and policy makers should consider both elements to achieve a more accurate understanding of public safety and the steps necessary to ensure it.
The Dark Figure of Crime
Crime data, typically sourced from law enforcement records or victim surveys, cannot account for every crime committed. The "dark figure of crime" refers to criminal activity that goes unreported or unnoticed by authorities, and most estimates suggest that it is fairly large. The reasons for underreporting are varied and include things like fear of retaliation, distrust in law enforcement, shame or stigma, or lack of motivation. Jurisdictions themselves can fail to report crime at the national level and changes in legal definitions or varying definitions across jurisdictions compounds the problem of accuracy over time.
These factors create significant gaps in crime data. Even if official reports show a decline in crime, the actual rate of incidents might remain steady or even increase if many are going unreported. Thus, relying solely on statistics can foster a false sense of security or, conversely, an inaccurate belief that crime is spiraling out of control.
Furthermore, administrative decisions can affect crime data. Consider the violence and protests that have been occurring on college campuses. We saw the impotence of administrators in their failure to respond, allowing violence and vandalism to occur, and subsequent inaction by many institutions to enforce consequences for those violating school codes of conduct or laws. Such actions demonstrate another way that criminal activity that is taking place may fail to become a reported statistics. To assume that the public is unaware of and unaffected by such activity in their perception of unrest is unreasonable.
Perception Drives Behavior, Regardless of Statistics
People’s perceptions of crime can have tangible effects on their behavior, sometimes even more so than the actual crime rate. Whether accurate or not, if individuals believe crime is rampant in their community, they may alter their daily routines, limit social interactions, or avoid certain neighborhoods. These changes can undermine community cohesion, strain relationships between residents, and contribute to feelings of isolation.
For example, if a neighborhood is statistically safe but residents believe it to be dangerous, businesses may struggle to thrive, and people may feel unsafe walking at night, despite data showing otherwise. On the other hand, if a neighborhood has a high crime rate but the perception is that it’s improving, people may continue investing in local businesses, which can contribute to revitalizing the area.
This disconnect between perception and data is exacerbated by the media, which can either focus on sensational or violent crimes, reinforcing public fears even when overall crime rates are low or declining or the opposite, claiming there is nothing to see while a city burns behind them. Given that the favored MSM narrative is the one that supports keeping Democratic candidates in office, much reporting currently emphasizes that statistics suggest crime is down while ignoring the clear evidence that perception is the opposite for many, particularly in Democratic-led cities, such as Portland, Chicago and San Francisco.
Elitism in Politics
While both parties have demonstrated a disconnect with voters on some issues, it seems obvious that the Democratic elites are ignoring a large amount of voter concern with respect to public disorder and crime in favor of woke ideology and elitism. The desire to censor speech and control the media and, even more worryingly, the talk of dismantling the First Amendment all demonstrates their belief that they know better and should therefore be the arbiters of information dissemination. They should not.
It is true that there are a variety of factors that contribute to the disconnect between politicians’ perspective and that of voters, but a large part of the problem on the Left lies in the failure to even attempt to understand voter perception because it is of no import to these elitists. Their drive to push their agenda and monopolize power leaves them disinterested in the perspective of the “common man.” It is this same lack of interest that led to complete surprise when former President Donald Trump was voted into office. And, instead of trying to understand those who voted for him to learn how to better connect and serve them, the solution of many was to malign those who did by labeling them as bigots who were stupid and/or evil.
Conclusion
In sum, while crime statistics are undeniably important, they are not the whole story. Perception matters because it shapes public behavior, policy, and policing in ways that data alone cannot capture. Recognizing the limitations of crime data and addressing the factors that shape public perception is crucial for creating communities that both feel and are safe. In the end, a balanced understanding of crime requires us to look beyond the numbers and listen to the fears, concerns, and experiences of the people who live in these communities. It also requires breaking away from the elitism that fuels the belief that ignoring perception is appropriate for those who represent our interests in government.